The three horizons

The “Three Horizons” model is very helpful for leaders as they think about vision. In establishing direction, the effective leader will focus on three distinct time horizons simultaneously:

1. Current responsibilities

Cultivating current responsibilities, extending and defending the core existing ministries. For example, a local church will have existing ministries relating to pastoral care, children, Sunday morning meetings, etc.

2. Emerging ideas

Tending and nurturing emerging ideas, strategies, and processes. These are budding ministries that are not yet running at full speed. These initiatives need attention to build them up to be effective and fruitful. Some of these will become core processes in the future – especially when some of the old core ministries are fulfilled or lose their focus or relevance. For example, a local church may have begun a new small group strategy that is just starting to become effective.

3. Seeds for tomorrow

Planting seeds for tomorrow. Healthy organisations encourage creativity and innovation for the long term. Not all of these seeds will bring forth an abundant harvest so a variety of initiatives needs to be carried forward together. We must listen to the Holy Spirit – He knows everything about the future! For example, a local church may be praying and learning about how to send out missionaries in the future.

This pattern encompasses the mature, emergent, and embryonic phases of an organisation’s life cycle. The leader is responsible to see that they are all addressed effectively. He may not directly be responsible for all of them but he is responsible to see that they get done.

If any one of these three horizons is ignored there will be problems. If the current, core responsibilities are neglected then there will be no tomorrow. But if the future horizons are neglected, sooner or later the organisation will stagnate and become irrelevant.

Moreover, the top leader must ensure that the right people focus on the right horizons. The gifts and callings required to manage current responsibilities, to develop new strategies and to search out viable future directions are widely different from one another:

Taking care of present responsibilities (the first horizon) requires effective managers.
Developing emerging strategies (the second horizon) requires builders – the typical “entrepreneurs” or leader-managers who can realistically connect long-range vision with the necessary daily realities of the organisation.
The identification and creation of viable future opportunities (the third horizon) requires lateral thinkers and visionaries.

Again, the leader is responsible to see that the three horizons are all being addressed effectively – at all times.